Which Construction Sectors Are Growing in 2027?
One contractor across town has a year of work lined up. You’re chasing bids that used to come easy. Same city. Same trade. Different sector.
In 2027, construction isn’t up or down. It’s split. This page shows a contractor or project manager how to read where the work is going and point the company at it.
Dr. Paul Borosky, Business Consultant, has worked with 1,000+ small business owners deciding where to put their next dollar of effort.
Talk to Dr. PaulCall or text (321) 948-9588.
Last Updated: November 2026
Real World Help From Dr. Paul
Construction Business Plan Template
A plan and a profit model built for contractors.
See the construction templateHow This Guide Works
Five minutes? Read Doctor Owl’s answer and the 3 steps below. Want the story? In Dr. Paul’s Fabled Forest Business School Series, Blueprint Bella, a beaver who runs Bella’s Dam Decent Builds, notices every one of her bids last spring went to the same shrinking kind of client. The numbers come right after her story.
- List every job you bid in the last 12 months by type: commercial, institutional, industrial, residential, public.
- Mark which ones you won and what each earned.
- Pick one growing sector where you already have a contact, and bid one job there.
Why Did Bella Stop Bidding Only Mill Jobs?
Bella’s Dam Decent Builds had built three sawmills in five years. Good clients. Then the mill owners stopped calling. Bella kept bidding mills anyway, because that’s what she knew.
Doctor Owl asked, “Is this a fire, or a foundation?” Fewer bids was a slow fire. Picking a new kind of work was the foundation. They worked it through Dr. Paul’s Organize-Plan-Grow™ Strategy.
- Organize. Chuck, her chipmunk foreman, sorted a year of bids. Mill work was down. The clinic and school jobs she’d passed on kept coming up.
- Plan. Bella kept one mill client and started bidding small clinic remodels, work her crew already knew how to do.
- Grow. Every quarter, Chuck checks what share of bids comes from each kind of client. If one kind slips, they shift before it hurts.
The first clinic job was small. It led to two more.
Where Is Construction Spending Headed in 2027?
The American Institute of Architects’ January 2026 Consensus Construction Forecast expects overall nonresidential building spending to rise about 2.2% in 2027. That’s modest.
The split is the story. The same forecast expects commercial spending to grow about 3.5% in 2027 and institutional spending about 2.8%, while manufacturing slips about 0.9%. These are forecasts, and they get revised.
Forecast, not a result. Source: AIA Consensus Construction Forecast (January 2026).
What Does a Split Market Mean for Your Company?
If most of your work comes from one shrinking sector, your pipeline thins out before your revenue does. By the time the bank account notices, you’re months behind.
You don’t need to chase the hottest sector. You need a mix, with some of it on the side that’s growing.
How Do You Point Your Company at the Growing Work?
- Sort last year’s bids by sector. Know where your work really comes from.
- Compare it to the forecast. Growing, flat, or shrinking. Be honest.
- Move toward work your crew already does. A school remodel is closer to a clinic than a data center is.
- Use the contacts you have. Architects and owners you know often work across sectors.
- Set a target mix. Say, no more than half your bids from any one kind of client.
What Does a Better Mix Look Like?
Illustration only. Round numbers, not a real company.
Say three out of four of your bids go to one kind of client that’s slowing down. Shift one of those four toward a growing sector each quarter. A year later, a slowdown in one area costs you a slice of work, not most of it.
Thinking about data center or government work? The QBP lessons on data center work for small contractors and winning government work cover the how-to. Plan the shift with the construction business plan template.
Want Help Picking Your Next Market?
Bring last year’s bid list to a free 15-minute call with Dr. Paul. You leave knowing which sector to test first, and what more help would cost if you want it.
Or call or text (321) 948-9588.
What Do Contractors Ask About Growing Sectors?
Should I chase data center work?
Only if your trade and size fit. Many small contractors do better in nearby sectors that are growing steadily.
How fast should I change my mix?
Slowly. One or two bids a quarter in a new sector is enough to learn without risking the company.
Are these forecasts reliable?
They’re informed estimates and they change. Use them to set direction, not to bet the business.
About the Author
Dr. Paul Borosky, DBA, MBA, helps contractors decide where to compete. He works with small business clients in all 50 states and Canada.
Sources
- The American Institute of Architects, Consensus Construction Forecast (January 2026).