What Are the Restaurant Industry Trends for 2027?

The National Restaurant Association counted 42% of operators as losing money in 2025. Since 2019, restaurant wages are up 41% and wholesale food is up 35%.

Busy does not mean profitable (revenue vs. profit). A full room can still lose money if food and labor run unchecked.

1. Work out your prime cost every week. Prime cost is the food and drink you actually used plus all labor, shown as a share of sales. Food and drink used is what you started the week with, plus what you bought, minus what’s left on the shelf. Labor is all payroll, including payroll taxes and benefits. Add the two, then divide by this week’s sales. Example (illustration only): $6,000 food plus $7,000 labor, divided by $20,000 in sales, is 65%. Is that good? There’s no single right number. Set your own target, then watch the trend: if it creeps up week after week, that’s your fire. How to set your prime cost target.
2. Know which five menu items make the most dollars (price minus what the ingredients cost), not just the most sales.
3. Pick one number the manager owns and reports every Monday (what a KPI is).

Average menu prices rose 36% from February 2020 to May 2026, according to federal price data cited by the National Restaurant Association. The USDA expects restaurant prices to rise about 2.6% in 2027. Nobody knows for sure.

Guests have already absorbed big increases. The next price bump has to be smarter, not bigger.

1. Raise prices item by item, starting with the dishes guests love most (how to raise prices without losing customers).
2. Rework portions and plates before you touch the price of your signature item.
3. Plan 2027 three ways: a slow year, an expected year, and a good year (scenario planning).

Restaurant research firm Technomic expects chains to keep closing weaker locations into 2027 as costs rise and diners cut back.

Every closed chain location leaves behind guests, trained staff, equipment, and a built-out space.

1. Watch for closings near you. Those guests need a new spot.
2. Recruit the experienced staff before someone else does.
3. Thinking about a second location? Look at second-generation space, meaning a spot where a restaurant already built the kitchen (what a second restaurant costs).

OpenTable’s 2027 report says Americans are finding new reasons to eat out, from payday to small personal wins. 76% expect to spend the same or more on dining out in 2027.

People aren’t waiting for birthdays anymore. A good Tuesday is a reason.

1. Build a small-win offer: a dessert or drink for a new job, a raise, a closed deal.
2. Train servers to ask, “What are we celebrating?”
3. Promote weeknights as celebration nights, not discount nights.

OpenTable finds diners pairing meals with concerts, games, and other events, turning dinner into a full night out.

If there’s a venue, stadium, or theater near you, its schedule is free marketing.

1. Put local event calendars into your staffing plan.
2. Build a fast pre-show menu that turns tables on time.
3. Partner with the venue on ticket-holder offers.

OpenTable’s 2027 report focuses on what brings diners back, from finding a favorite table to building a lasting relationship with a restaurant.

A regular costs less to keep than a new guest costs to find.

1. Track who comes back. A notebook at the host stand or the truck window works (how to build a customer list).
2. Teach the team to use names and remember orders.
3. Give regulars something new guests can’t get (getting customers to come back).

Technomic says Gen Z wants to be treated as adults and wants real-world experiences. OpenTable reports 58% of Gen Z expect to spend more dining out in 2027, compared with 44% of Americans overall.

Your next wave of regulars is in their twenties. They found you online. They stay for the in-person experience.

1. Make the room worth posting about, then make the service worth coming back for.
2. Hire Gen Z staff and ask them what their friends want.
3. Don’t talk down. Treat them like the adults they are.

Technomic predicts more guests will want smaller, high-protein plates, including people on weight-loss drugs like Ozempic who simply eat less. They still expect good value.

Some guests want less food, not cheaper food. That’s a chance to make more on each plate.

1. Add a smaller portion of two or three best sellers.
2. Don’t cut the price in half just because the portion is smaller.
3. Check the food cost on every new size before it hits the menu (portion control).

Technomic predicts diners will order less alcohol in 2027, because of cost and changing habits. That shrinks the average bill and the profit on it.

If drink sales pay a big share of your bills, you need a plan B.

1. Build a real non-alcoholic drink menu and price it like a cocktail.
2. Track how many tables order a drink, every shift. That number is called your drink attach rate.
3. Use value offers to keep the second round alive.

Qu, a restaurant software company, surveyed 168 fast food and fast casual chain brands in 2026. It found 73% are investing in AI, but only 9% report a meaningful impact so far.

Buying AI isn’t a strategy. Most chains in the survey are already spending on it, and few can point to a real result yet. A small restaurant can’t afford to guess.

1. Name the problem first: labor hours, missed phone orders, or food waste.
2. Pick one tool for that one problem. Measure it for 90 days.
3. Cancel anything that can’t show a result.